Kyle J. Brazil

All good things must come to an end. Society as we know it is no exception.

This is essentially the premise of the film Collapse, exemplified by the trailer above. The movie is framed around an interview with Michael Ruppert and the concept of peak oil, the point at which we reach maximum oil extraction and enter a state of decline. At that point oil prices will skyrocket and, according to Ruppert, we will be unable to fuel our economy and everything will come crashing down.

A state of horrific panic sets in when you see how correct he’s been about other predictions and how emotional he is about the issue. By the time I reached the end of the film I was ready to bunker down and prepare for the coming apocalypse. It seemed as if the world in which we are all a part of didn’t really matter anymore as it wasn’t going to be around for much longer. I was about to start buying seeds, learn how to grow my own food, and figure out how to live like our ancient ancestors. Surely I don’t want to be one of the many who are destined to perish.

Then, I sat back, took a deep breath, and thought about the situation like a rational person and less of someone set on doomsday. While I do not dispute the facts that he presents, I do now disagree with the conclusions that he draws from them. The destruction of society could be a possible outcome but I do not believe it will be.

Ruppert does not spend nearly enough time explaining why he discredits alternative energy options that are already in play. He does point out that solar and wind are viable solutions in the short term, which I believe to be false. They have a lot more staying power than he acknowledges. The technology behind each of these sources of energy is still in the early phases but is progressing quickly. He also misses a simple principle of economics: we will adopt the cheapest and most efficient source of energy. Currently, that is oil. As the price of oil rises and that of solar and wind fall (either in real terms or relative to oil) we will adopt those. Does he really assume that we as human beings are just going to shoot ourselves in the foot and let the world fall to pieces? We may not be perfect but I think our species should be afforded a lot more credit than that.

He throws ethanol production to wind but fails to acknowledge that there are multiple sources of it. In America we commonly think of ethanol coming from corn. It has long been known that corn ethanol does not provide nearly the same output as gasoline but another source does: sugar. Just ask Brazil. It’s been working pretty damn well for them so far. There are currently tariffs on imports of sugar ethanol into the U.S. which hampers its adoption but that will end as people need to keep their internal combustion engines kicking for a bit longer. The oil industry will try to protect their interests until they’ve made every last bit of profit but that’s not a surprise and won’t stop progress in other areas.

Ruppert rightfully highlights that a good portion of things we utilize everyday are derived from oil, like plastics and fertilizers. Well, solutions are already being implemented in that arena too. Corn based plastics are being produced and are now becoming adopted by big corporations to help change the world. There is also a global shift taking place in understanding how harmful chemical fertilizers and GMO foods are for us. Society as a whole is moving towards more organically produced solutions. And while the Internet was originally a boon for global trade it is now becoming a huge stepping stone for local commerce. Mobile phones have been a global revolution in their own right. It is not just here in the states either, M-Pesa and text message services that provide information to farmers are greatly improving developing countries.

There is also this major assumption that we live in a horrible, corrupt world where every government and corporation is only out for their own interests and could care less about our planet. I’m not naive and do know that our society isn’t always entirely truthful. But, in an age of WikiLeaks, politician’s and corporate executive’s feet will be continually held to fire, only improving honesty.

Collapse’s view of the future of the world is massively misconstrued and does not give any justice to human ingenuity and innovation. There are great points made about living more sustainably and in better harmony with our planet. That seems to be the path we are already on. The 20th century was our rebellious adolescent phase of modern society and the 21st seems to be shaping up to be the one in which we grow up and learn to live like adults.

Michael Ruppert is not a prophet nor is he the only one who sees the challenges we face. Luckily, for the sake of our planet and everything living on it, there are brilliant people working towards solutions rather than scaring everyone to death.

Image by programwitch via Flickr

Ever since the beginning of human communication the written word has reigned supreme. It was the primary way of disseminating information and spreading ideas. Centuries later, when the moving picture and home television emerged, that all changed. People started to depart from reading and preferring to watch TV shows and movies for knowledge and entertainment.

This didn’t last for long as the Internet brought about the resurrection of written word dominance. But now, after an even shorter period of time, the evolution of the web is bringing about a swing back towards video consumption in a major way.

The Internet was a boon for writing. Its entire foundation is in words. Not just the majority of information sent through it but the very code it is assembled with. But in the early days it was also extremely slow. Remember how long it used to take to load a page with a couple pictures on it? That soon changed but the web is still preferential to writing. Blogs flourished, newspapers flocked online, and publishers began to wonder if books would soon live there too (looks like the answer is continuing closer to yes).

There were early pioneers who dreamed of the Internet becoming the new TV but the lack of ubiquitous broadband killed their dreams. Sure, the modern Internet is filled with video content but it’s still not a major source of information for most users. Online video is mostly filled with ridiculous antics and hilarious cats. Not necessarily what I would call quality.

2011 will bring about the revolution for online video.

The first big change is that video will become searchable. This has always been the achilles heel of Internet video. The written word could easily be indexed and categorized but the moving picture could not. This is quickly shifting as Google begins to perfect speech to text. Think Google Voice was a business move to take out the telecoms? Neither do I. It’s one giant testing ground in order to capture as much voice information as possible, make their systems better at transcribing it (like they do for voicemails), thus enabling it to be searched. It is also no coincidence that they just extended free voice calling throughout 2011.

Another big issue, as mentioned above, has been quality. Most video online is not professionally produced, or anywhere close to it. YouTube (read: Google) is trying to help fix that problem by giving 500 of its partners a $1,000 credit to purchase new equipment. Other outfits are serious about making professional online content like Revision3 and TechCrunchTV. Live video is also on the upswing too with sites like USTREAM and Livestream landing big partnerships for events typically only shown over major networks.

The last major hurdle for online video is bringing it where people actually want it: their living room. The tech world has been drooling over this for quite some time and have only really achieved it through sloppy hacks with lame user interfaces. The latter part of 2010 showed that those days are over. Apple TV got a refresh, as did Roku. GoogleTV and the Boxee Box both made their way to the market as well. Connected TVs (ones with the ability to access the Internet built in) are also on the rise. All of these options are not only easy to use but are affordable enough for mass adoption.

This coming year is going to be extremely exciting to watch as the three major issues of online video become resolved. Web-based video will soon be easily accessible in every living room, of high quality, and easily searched. This will be a boon for anyone (or any company) ready to take the video plunge.

You can count me as one of them.

Image via Wikipedia

Ever since since science fiction writers have imagined aliens they have envisioned little green men coming down from the sky in shiny, lighted, ships. We assume they will be intellectually superior to our kind and possess technology capable of actions we have only dreamed (obviously, they found us). Humans are still fascinated with the chance of being visited by extraterrestrial life. But it’s becoming increasingly likely that the exact opposite is going to happen.

Most of the original thinking was brought about in the 1950s and 60s, a time in our history that was at the inflection point of great breakthroughs. TV was introduced; our military was growing extremely advanced, flying and launching interesting vessels through the skies; and it was just the beginning of adventures outside of our own planet.

If we stop for moment and look around at just how much things have changed since then we essentially look alien to our own predecessors. Over fifty years later we have amazing technological capabilities that were unimaginable only a few years prior. The computer revolution was a pinnacle for human development. There are no signs of slowing either. This is only the dawn of what is to come.

We are now an advanced society capable of sending probes into the depths of space and exploring our vast universe with sophisticated equipment. Our communication abilities and devices have reached an astounding level. Medical diagnosis and treatment is fascinating in its capacity.

Suddenly, it doesn’t seem so far fetched that instead of us being visited, we will actually be the visitors. It may not happen in the immediate future but with the direction we are headed it seems essentially inevitable. NASA’s recent discovery has opened the door to where we may even find life and it might look like.

The civilization we find will most certainly be completely different from our own. At what stage of development will these creatures be? Will they resemble something like us fifty years ago? 500? 5,000? Or maybe they will actually be more advanced, just in different ways.

Imagine the day the world gets to hear, “Houston, we have made contact.”

Image by kengo via Flickr

Yesterday was a huge day for Google. They announced two highly anticipated products: Chrome OS and the Chrome Web Store. The former is being released in mid-2011 while the latter is available for immediate consumption. For a company that has been striking out as of late, these are poised to be great successes. They are very strategic business moves that mean a great deal for the future of the company.

Much of the hype has been focused around Chrome OS having its sights on Microsoft. I am much more interested in the new Chrome App Store and its target: Apple.

There is no argument that Apple created the flourishing of app markets across the mobile world. This wasn’t their original vision though. When the first iPhone was announced, sans the ability to add anything to the device, Steve Jobs touted web apps as the future. A year later that tone changed. It was soon realized that web-based applications were not nearly as robust as their vision entailed. This brought about the, now famous, download-based App Store. It proved to be immensely successful and key to Apple’s dominance in the mobile space. Competitors quickly follow suit, including Google with Android and the Android Market.

Downloadable apps make perfect since for these smaller units and seemed destined to reach our PCs eventually. Apple, in lockstep with expectations, announced the coming Mac App Store with the basic ideas and functionality of that on the iPhone and iPad. Google long ago realized that the book was not closed on web apps and that the last thing we needed was to download more stuff on our computers. On mobile devices we live in apps. On our PC we live in the browser. Why should we leave it be productive?

This is the entire basis for Chrome OS but Google wasn’t about to wait until its launch to show the world just what the browser can do. Modern computers are powerhouses constantly connected to high speed Internet without the limitations of a phone or tablet. If a browser is fast enough then it’s possible, with HTML5 and Javascript, to produce feature-rich applications just as capable as programs we already use.

What does this mean for Apple? After spending some time playing with a handful of Chrome apps at launch it essentially renders the yet-to-be released Mac App Store pointless. Many of the Chrome apps are iPad-esque, mirroring the design and functionality, which is probably what most will look like for the Mac. The big difference between the two is that Chrome has the upper hand: no downloads, no updates, and universal availability on any computer through a browser.

Apple redefined the smartphone as we know it while Google had to play catch-up (albeit quite successfully). This time Google is beating Apple to the punch and proving that their idea for PC apps is better for the consumer. This means that it will be their game to control, not the other way around.  They have the chance to be the market leader out of the gate.

It will be an interesting battle in the coming year and leaves open the question as to whether Apple will stick to their guns or adopt their own Safari based app store. Since web “apps” can run in any modern browser the main focus will be on the more powerful, which will charge a premium for access. The fight will really be over who gets to process those payments, a potentially muli-million dollar business.

Let the games begin.

No matter what the topic there is always an “in” crowd. They are the people who are the leaders of the pack. They set the pace for everyone else to follow. They determine the rules of the road. Fashion, sports, entertainment, and even the tech crowds all have them.

It seems as a society we need specialists to tell the masses just how to act.

I consider myself to be one of these people when it comes to technology and social media. I’m always on the bleeding-edge of new trends and am the first one among my group of friends to hear about the latest gadgets, websites, or apps.

Recently I was in a discussion with someone about how she uses social media. After explaining her preference to keep her Twitter stream private and realizing her shortage of Facebook feature knowledge I detested, “You’re doing it all wrong! That’s not how you use either service!”

Before I could even continue she quipped, “Excuse me. Where did you ever see rules posted for social media? I am allowed to use Twitter and Facebook however I want. You, and other people, may do it differently but it’s my experience, not yours.”

Wow. She is entirely correct. Who am I (or anyone else) to tell somebody how they should use any product or service? Just because I try to utilize every new feature and think I’m helping write the guidelines does not mean that is how every user will, or should, embrace it.

My entire perspective of tech trendsetters has been altered. Most new technologies are so dynamic that they are undoubtably going to have parts that everyone will use and some that only the tail end will. Products will continue to get refined to focus on components people use the most and make for a better overal experience. I’m going to continue to test and play with exciting innovations, as usual, while helping to educate curious others but I will no longer cast judgement or think my way is superior to anyone else’s.

Thank you, dear friend, for helping me snap back to reality to reach this realization.

To each their own.